BILVYAPARBIL VYAPAR LIMITED Forensic Risk Analysis

Holding Company
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹20 Cr
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
0 / 100
0 QoQ
Stable
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure has stabilized in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. No major change in risk trend.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
4.620%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

No active forensic penalties contributing.
Final Composite Risk0 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 140 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Profit Collapse
  • Negative FCF Streak
  • Revenue-Debt Divergence
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (3)

CriticalHigh
Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
BILVYAPAR: Net Profit collapsed by 108.5% from FY2025 Q1 to FY2026 Q1.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
BILVYAPAR: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"Free cash flow pressure is easing as capital intensity or working capital stress recedes."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
BILVYAPAR: Revenue fell 91.0% while Debt rose 0.8% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)23.49✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+66.0+57.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Holding Company (n=12 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
4.62(+0%)
1M Divergence-15.86%
1 Week0%
1 Month-18.23%
6 Months-34.19%
1 Year-69.63%
2 Year-73.29%
3 Year-79.05%
Sector Average (1M)-2.37%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

BILVYAPAR • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-1.4231σ
Significant momentum lag
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2639 of 2716
Top 97.16% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+0.0%
1M-18.2%
6M-34.2%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA7.34
200 DMA8.55
150 DMA Slope-12.1838%Declining
Relative Strength-38.16%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.0908
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (9).

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2025

Negative FCF Streak

2025

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2024

Negative FCF Streak

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20262-06175
FY202507-2173
FY20240-7-6172
FY20232-151-4174