BIRLANUBirlaNu Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Furniture Home Furnishing
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹1,142 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
28 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

57.1th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹1,300.4▼1.25%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+11.5 pts
Competitive Position
+10.6 pts
Stability Adjustment
+6.0 pts
Final Composite Risk28 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 4 → 28 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Operating Leverage Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh
Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 11 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
BIRLANU: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 0.13x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
BIRLANU: Net Profit collapsed by 392.2% from FY2025 Q2 to FY2026 Q2.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2024
Inventory growth (7.4%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-5.6%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 35.6%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
BIRLANU: Revenue fell 2.8% while Debt rose 34.5% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.6712.35✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+38.0+42.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Furniture Home Furnishing (n=8 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹1,300.4(-1.25%)
1M Divergence-6.83%
1 Week-4.28%
1 Month-4.56%
6 Months-19.01%
1 Year-42.28%
2 Year-30.37%
3 Year-30.37%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

BIRLANU • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.7798σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2396 of 2716
Top 88.22% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-4.3%
1M-4.6%
6M-19.0%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹1,570.81
200 DMA₹1,664.05
150 DMA Slope-4.2245%Declining
Relative Strength-14.86%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.4385
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (24).
EUROPRATIKEUROPRATIK
14 Risk
Sector %ile14th
Delta+5
Active Flags3
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

BIRLANUBirlaNu Limited
28 Risk
Sector %ile57th
Delta-5
Active Flags7
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

AHLADAAhlada Engineers Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile71th
Delta+5
Active Flags26
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
4.242.4th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
329.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Revenue-Debt Divergence

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20263,785-120119852
FY20253,645-3382710
FY20243,40535173548
FY20233,50497132407