BPCLBharat Petroleum Corporation Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Refineries & Marketing
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹1,63,128 Cr
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
16 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in competitive position. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

40.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹294.4▼0.83%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+10.6 pts
Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
-5.0 pts
Final Composite Risk16 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 16 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating profit margins
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (17.8%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (6.4%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
BPCL: Net Profit collapsed by 72.1% from FY2024 Q2 to FY2025 Q2.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 28.5%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
BPCL: Revenue fell 1.2% while Debt rose 12.3% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.3611.56✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+50.0+50.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Refineries & Marketing (n=6 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹294.4(-0.83%)
1M Divergence-4.28%
1 Week-3.35%
1 Month-2.01%
6 Months-14.97%
1 Year-0.93%
2 Year+5.16%
3 Year+94.17%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in competitive position remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

BPCL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.1%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score7.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing1%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.6692σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2283 of 2716
Top 84.06% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-3.4%
1M-2.0%
6M-15.0%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹335.57
200 DMA₹329.25
150 DMA Slope-0.9466%Declining
Relative Strength-9.48%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.1677
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (16).
BPCLBharat Petroleum Corporation Limited
16 Risk
Sector %ile40th
Delta+5
Active Flags5
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Stable

CHENNPETROChennai Petroleum Corporation Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile80th
Delta-5
Active Flags17
Accel+0
Growth Sustainability

Watch

MRPLMangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+10
Active Flags18
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
329.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY2026526,11925,84350,76943,482
FY2025503,20213,33723,67851,061
FY2024509,22726,85935,93645,485
FY2023535,0462,13112,46660,455