BRNLBharat Road Network Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Civil Construction
Risk ClassModerate Deterioration
Market Cap₹159 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Moderate stress emerging. While not critical, underlying pressure is building.
44 / 100
+30 QoQ
Deteriorating
Sentinel Insight

Leverage and execution pressures are building. Weakness is detected in project execution and margins. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +3 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹19.57▼2%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+20.0 pts
Competitive Position
+15.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.6 pts
Final Composite Risk44 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 11 → 44 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Operating Leverage Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh
Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 25953.1 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (11.0%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 8 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
BRNL: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -4915.52x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
BRNL: Net Profit collapsed by 84.7% from FY2025 Q3 to FY2026 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
BRNL: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.924.13⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+22.0+56.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Civil Construction (n=53 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹19.57(-2%)
1M Divergence-6.16%
1 Week-3.69%
1 Month-5.78%
6 Months-17.08%
1 Year-15.32%
2 Year-64.03%
3 Year-35.41%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Moderate Stress and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

BRNL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.4559σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1994 of 2716
Top 73.42% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-3.7%
1M-5.8%
6M-17.1%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹21.31
200 DMA₹21.31
150 DMA Slope-1.3317%Declining
Relative Strength-12.00%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.2954
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (10).
ABINFRAA B Infrabuild Limited
0 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta0
Active Flags1
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

AHLUCONTAhluwalia Contracts (India) Limited
9 Risk
Sector %ile44th
Delta+5
Active Flags9
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

AFCONSAfcons Infrastructure Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile90th
Delta+25
Active Flags12
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Watch

BRNLBharat Road Network Limited
44 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+30
Active Flags6
Accel+3
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
4.242.4th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY2026185-59-126434
FY202548013671434
FY2024391-1133651,328
FY2023350-2052591,239