CANBKCanara Bank Forensic Risk Analysis

Public Sector Bank
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹1,34,699 Cr
Primary DriverSolvency
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
34 / 100
-17 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Early signs of pressure are emerging in asset quality. Pressure is receding in solvency. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

81.8th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
129.080.88%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Solvency
+34.0 pts
Final Composite Risk34 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 4534 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • CAR Decay
  • NIM Compression
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh
CAR Decay
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageQuarterlyActive for 10 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
CANBK: CAR (12.49%) at critical buffer level (v/s 11.5% floor).

"Early signs of capital erosion. Internal accruals are not enough to support loan growth."

NIM Compression
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 7 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
CANBK: NIM decline is accelerating (34 bps drop vs prev 2 bps).

"Pressure on core margins is stabilizing. Monitor for sustained interest income recovery."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)6.096.50✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+32.0+46.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Public Sector Bank (n=12 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
129.08(+0.88%)
1M Divergence-3.48%
1 Week-3.06%
1 Month-4.14%
6 Months-12.42%
1 Year+14.43%
2 Year+16.38%
3 Year+127.53%
Sector Average (1M)-0.66%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in solvency suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in solvency ratios and structural leverage, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

CANBK • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.15%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score27.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing15%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.6166σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2222 of 2716
Top 81.81% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-3.1%
1M-4.1%
6M-12.4%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA142.9
200 DMA136.18
150 DMA Slope+0.5279%Rising
Relative Strength-6.93%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.9036
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (20).

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
0.32.8th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

CAR Decay

2026

CAR Decay

2026

NIM Compression

2026

NIM Compression

2026

CAR Decay

2026

CAR Decay

2025

CAR Decay

2025

NIM Compression

2025

CAR Decay

2025

NIM Compression

2025

CAR Decay

2025

NIM Compression

2024

CAR Decay

2024

CAR Decay

2024

NIM Compression

2024

NIM Compression

2024

CAR Decay

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY2026153,08317,8737,942155,288
FY2025152,65817,54060,66989,665
FY2024139,16520,49615,04757,538