Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹1,113.5(▲5.45%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

CARYSILCARYSIL LIMITED Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: CARYSIL LIMITED Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Household Appliances

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹2,520 Cr

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

5 / 100

+5 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹1,113.5▲5.45%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.0 pts

Stability Adjustment

-3.0 pts

Final Composite Risk5 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 5 → 5 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Relative Growth Weakness
Industrial Margin Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Inventory turnover
Operating cash flow
Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Inventory growth (27.7%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (7.3%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

CARYSIL: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Negative FCF Streak

⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 1 Years

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Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

CARYSIL: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -4.6%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2024

CARYSIL: Raw material costs consumed an additional 3.6% of revenue YoY.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	3.83	9.85	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+61.0	+41.5	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Household Appliances (n=20 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹1,113.5(+5.45%)

1M Divergence+21.06%

1 Week+0.28%

1 Month+23.32%

6 Months+15.41%

1 Year+24.88%

2 Year+40.19%

3 Year+100.92%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

CARYSIL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.97%

Trend QualityStrong

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score75%

Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)

Probability of Advancing97%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.8955σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#277 of 2716

Top 10.20% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W+0.3%

1M+23.3%

6M+15.4%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹905.74

200 DMA₹900.53

150 DMA Slope+1.6239%Rising

Relative Strength+20.90%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.4024

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (24.5).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
CARYSILCARYSIL LIMITED	5	0th	+5	6	+1	Balance Sheet StressStable
BLUESTARCOBlue Star Limited	10	21th	0	9	+0	Competitive PositionStable
AMBERAmber Enterprises India Limited	29	53th	-5	18	+0	GovernanceWatch
BAJAJELECBajaj Electricals Limited	41	84th	0	25	+0	Earnings QualityModerate Deterioration