CASTROLINDCastrol India Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Lubricants
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹18,408 Cr
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
15 / 100
+4 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in competitive position. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is gradually increasing.

80.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹183.71▼0.14%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+10.6 pts
Earnings Quality
+4.8 pts
Final Composite Risk15 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 21 → 15 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Inventory turnover
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Inventory growth (31.0%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (6.2%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ1 FY2024
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 333.3%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Relative Growth Weakness
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (13.1%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)3.275.13✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+51.0+55.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Lubricants (n=6 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹183.71(-0.14%)
1M Divergence-2.87%
1 Week-0.17%
1 Month-0.6%
6 Months-1.19%
1 Year-11.1%
2 Year+4.16%
3 Year+84.93%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in competitive position remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

CASTROLIND • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.3%
Trend QualityEarly Base
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score30%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing3%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.2082σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1435 of 2716
Top 52.84% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-0.2%
1M-0.6%
6M-1.2%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹182.81
200 DMA₹186.19
150 DMA Slope-0.8369%Declining
Relative Strength+4.30%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.6903
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (11).
GANDHARGANDHAR
10 Risk
Sector %ile20th
Delta+3
Active Flags13
Accel+1
Growth Sustainability

Stable

CASTROLINDCastrol India Limited
15 Risk
Sector %ile80th
Delta+4
Active Flags4
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Stable

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
6.868th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
329.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Inventory Stress

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20255,7899501,090-
FY20245,4539271,044-
FY20235,158864853-
FY20224,842815916-