CCLCCL Products (India) Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Tea & Coffee
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹13,609 Cr
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
0 / 100
0 QoQ
Stable
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure has stabilized in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. No major change in risk trend.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹1,070.5▲0.54%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

No active forensic penalties contributing.
Final Composite Risk0 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 13 → 0 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
  • Operating Leverage Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating cash flow
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
CCL: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Inventory growth (66.0%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (21.4%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
CCL: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"Free cash flow pressure is easing as capital intensity or working capital stress recedes."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 31.1%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.422.13⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+66.0+66.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Tea & Coffee (n=2 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹1,070.5(+0.54%)
1M Divergence-7.96%
1 Week+0.62%
1 Month-5.69%
6 Months+24.85%
1 Year+82.53%
2 Year+89%
3 Year+71.97%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

CCL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.18%
Trend QualityEarly Base
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score17.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing18%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.9235σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#270 of 2716
Top 9.94% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+0.6%
1M-5.7%
6M+24.9%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹N/A
200 DMA₹N/A
150 DMA SlopeN/ANeutral
Relative Strength0.00%Neutral
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0000
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (40).
CCLCCL Products (India) Limited
0 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta0
Active Flags5
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

TATACONSUMTATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS LIMITED
0 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta0
Active Flags2
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Negative FCF Streak

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Negative FCF Streak

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20264,4663888581,291
FY20253,1143102901,813
FY20242,660250551,621
FY20232,074269198916