Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹29.62(▼2.28%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

CENTRALBKCentral Bank of India Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Central Bank of India Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Public Sector Bank

Risk ClassWatch

Market Cap₹34,187 Cr

Primary DriverSolvency

Flagium AI Risk Score

28 / 100

-3 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Early signs of pressure are emerging in asset quality. Pressure is receding in solvency. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

72.7th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹29.62▼2.28%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Solvency

+27.7 pts

Final Composite Risk28 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 48 → 28 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

CAR Decay
GNPA Spike
NIM Compression

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (3)

CriticalHigh

CAR Decay

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageQuarterlyActive for 6 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

CENTRALBK: CAR (0.00%) at critical buffer level (v/s 11.5% floor). [Growth Adjusted: 19%]

"CRAR is dangerously close to the floor. Growth is halted to preserve capital."

NIM Compression

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 6 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

CENTRALBK: NIM declining for 3 consecutive quarters.

"Pressure on core margins is stabilizing. Monitor for sustained interest income recovery."

GNPA Spike

🔭 Relative Sector RiskQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

CENTRALBK: GNPA increasing for 2 consecutive quarters.

"Asset quality signals are beginning to normalize. Historical credit costs are now receding."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	8	6.50	⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+38.0	+46.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Public Sector Bank (n=12 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹29.62(-2.28%)

1M Divergence-16.67%

1 Week-4.51%

1 Month-17.33%

6 Months-18.33%

1 Year-24.07%

2 Year-52.46%

3 Year+11.14%

Sector Average (1M)-0.66%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in solvency suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in solvency ratios and structural leverage, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

CENTRALBK • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.1%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing1%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-1.0390σ

Significant momentum lag

Universe Rank#2556 of 2716

Top 94.11% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-4.5%

1M-17.3%

6M-18.3%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹35.99

200 DMA₹35.93

150 DMA Slope-1.1654%Declining

Relative Strength-12.85%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.3069

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (20).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
INDIANBIndian Bank	13	27th	-5	11	+0	GovernanceStable
BANKBARODABank of Baroda	26	64th	-5	11	+0	GovernanceWatch
CENTRALBKCentral Bank of India	28	73th	-3	3	+0	SolvencyWatch
PNBPunjab National Bank	43	100th	-8	17	+0	Earnings QualityModerate Deterioration