CENTRUMCentrum Capital Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Other Financial Services
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹1,267 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
21 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

80.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +2 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹22.08▼0.27%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+25.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
-4.0 pts
Final Composite Risk21 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 16 → 21 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • NIM Compression
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Debt growth
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh
Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

NIM Compression
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 7 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
CENTRUM: NIM compressed by 222 bps YoY (to 11.01%).

"NIM is under severe pressure due to rising cost of funds or falling asset yields."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.096.75✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+45.0+46.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Other Financial Services (n=6 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹22.08(-0.27%)
1M Divergence-7.77%
1 Week-3.5%
1 Month-8.5%
6 Months-25.1%
1 Year-33.61%
2 Year-43.31%
3 Year+20.99%
Sector Average (1M)-0.73%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

CENTRUM • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.8943σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2487 of 2716
Top 91.57% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-3.5%
1M-8.5%
6M-25.1%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹26.99
200 DMA₹29.24
150 DMA Slope-4.9905%Declining
Relative Strength-19.61%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.5580
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (20).
CRISILCRISIL Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile40th
Delta-5
Active Flags11
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

CENTRUMCentrum Capital Limited
21 Risk
Sector %ile80th
Delta+5
Active Flags2
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20264,127-281-1,81416,058
FY20253,661-1492,5324,307
FY20242,239-711204,364
FY20231,365-183-4,0542,653