Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹3,600(▲2.53%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

CENTUMCentum Electronics Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Centum Electronics Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Industrial Products

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹3,973 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

19 / 100

-4 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in profitability and earnings quality. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

40.9th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹3,600▲2.53%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+13.0 pts

Balance Sheet Stress

+6.4 pts

Final Composite Risk19 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 22 → 19 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress
Operating Leverage Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Debt growth
Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

CENTUM: Raw material costs consumed an additional 22.0% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 10 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

CENTUM: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -4.68x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

CENTUM: Net Profit collapsed by 92.4% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Inventory growth (20.7%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (4.9%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 4.6%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	6.08	8.74	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+47.0	+45.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Industrial Products (n=45 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹3,600(+2.53%)

1M Divergence+24.14%

1 Week+13.54%

1 Month+26.41%

6 Months+58.77%

1 Year+45.94%

2 Year+106.72%

3 Year+228.25%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

CENTUM • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.88%

Trend QualityDeveloping

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score85%

Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)

Probability of Advancing88%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+1.4874σ

Strong positive momentum leadership

Universe Rank#139 of 2716

Top 5.12% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W+13.5%

1M+26.4%

6M+58.8%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹2,590.18

200 DMA₹2,608.58

150 DMA Slope+2.3959%Rising

Relative Strength+62.97%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.6704

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (21).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AFFORDABLEAffordable Robotic & Automation Limited	10	20th	+5	6	+2	Competitive PositionStable
CENTUMCentum Electronics Limited	19	41th	-4	6	+0	Earnings QualityStable
ANUPThe Anup Engineering Limited	35	77th	+20	14	+2	Earnings QualityWatch
ATAMAtam Valves Limited	35	77th	0	11	+0	Earnings QualityWatch