Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹756.95(▲0.36%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

CENTURYPLYCentury Plyboards (India) Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Century Plyboards (India) Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Plywood Boards/ Laminates

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹16,374 Cr

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

5 / 100

+5 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹756.95▲0.36%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.0 pts

Stability Adjustment

-3.0 pts

Final Composite Risk5 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 13 → 5 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress
Working Capital Expansion

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover
Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

CENTURYPLY: EBITDA margin compressed by 2.8 bps YoY.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Inventory growth (52.8%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (12.3%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

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Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

CENTURYPLY: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

CENTURYPLY: Net Profit collapsed by 58.8% from FY2024 Q2 to FY2025 Q2.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Negative FCF Streak

⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 2 Years

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Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2025

CENTURYPLY: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"Free cash flow pressure is easing as capital intensity or working capital stress recedes."

Capex Efficiency Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

Aggressive Capex (44.2%) amidst slow revenue growth (8.9%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -1.0%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	5.17	7.40	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+61.0	+55.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Plywood Boards/ Laminates (n=9 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹756.95(+0.36%)

1M Divergence-7.37%

1 Week-1.66%

1 Month-5.1%

6 Months-5.26%

1 Year-2.98%

2 Year+16.86%

3 Year+32.2%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

CENTURYPLY • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.3213σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1697 of 2716

Top 62.48% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-1.7%

1M-5.1%

6M-5.3%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹766.07

200 DMA₹768.36

150 DMA Slope-0.2270%Declining

Relative Strength-1.37%Neutral

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.2175

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (11).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
CENTURYPLYCentury Plyboards (India) Limited	5	0th	+5	8	+1	Balance Sheet StressStable
ADLArchidply Decor Limited	9	25th	-3	19	+0	Balance Sheet StressStable
GREENLAMGREENLAM	21	63th	-5	25	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
GREENPANELGreenpanel Industries Limited	35	100th	+22	32	+1	Balance Sheet StressWatch