Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹183.68(▼0.42%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

CHEMCONCHEMCON Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: CHEMCON Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Specialty Chemicals

Risk ClassStable

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

11 / 100

+5 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

16.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹183.68▼0.42%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+10.8 pts

Final Composite Risk11 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 11 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress
Working Capital Expansion

What to Watch Next Quarter

Working capital efficiency
Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2024

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 57.8%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

CHEMCON: Raw material costs consumed an additional 5.8% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Inventory growth (39.8%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-7.7%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2025

CHEMCON: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2024

CHEMCON: Net Profit collapsed by 72.3% from FY2023 Q4 to FY2024 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	6.33	10.68	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+55.0	+46.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Specialty Chemicals (n=51 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹183.68(-0.42%)

1M Divergence+15.72%

1 Week-6.49%

1 Month+17.99%

6 Months-7.99%

1 Year-5.23%

2 Year-20.05%

3 Year-29.06%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

CHEMCON • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.1%

Trend QualityEarly Base

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score25%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing1%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.3435σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#563 of 2716

Top 20.73% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-6.5%

1M+18.0%

6M-8.0%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹180.64

200 DMA₹193.77

150 DMA Slope-5.8231%Declining

Relative Strength-5.26%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.2468

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (20).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
CHEMCONCHEMCON	11	16th	+5	6	+1	Earnings QualityStable
AARTIINDAarti Industries Limited	20	46th	-5	24	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
ANURASAnupam Rasayan India Limited	31	78th	+16	29	+2	Balance Sheet StressWatch
ACIArchean Chemical Industries Limited	35	84th	+20	22	+1	Earnings QualityWatch