CHEMFABCHEMFAB Forensic Risk Analysis

Commodity Chemicals
Risk ClassWatch
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
32 / 100
-3 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

57.1th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹401.25▲0%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+19.0 pts
Competitive Position
+13.0 pts
Final Composite Risk32 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 32 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (9)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 11.0 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (97.7%) amidst slow revenue growth (-5.1%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 40.0%.

"Working capital cycle is stretching dangerously. This is putting severe strain on daily operations."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 7 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
CHEMFAB: Net Profit collapsed by 336.0% from FY2025 Q3 to FY2026 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Inventory growth (52.2%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (1.8%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
CHEMFAB: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.57x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
CHEMFAB: Revenue fell 6.4% while Debt rose 49.0% in 2026 vs 2025.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)8.5811.00✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+34.0+35.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Commodity Chemicals (n=15 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹401.25(+0%)
1M Divergence-4.09%
1 Week+0.04%
1 Month-1.82%
6 Months-21.42%
1 Year-47.73%
2 Year-25.36%
3 Year+19.87%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

CHEMFAB • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.3783σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1836 of 2716
Top 67.60% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+0.0%
1M-1.8%
6M-21.4%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹436.28
200 DMA₹490.59
150 DMA Slope-5.8694%Declining
Relative Strength-15.63%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.6347
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (31).
ANDHRSUGARThe Andhra Sugars Limited
12 Risk
Sector %ile7th
Delta0
Active Flags21
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

AMNPLSTAmines & Plasticizers Limited
31 Risk
Sector %ile50th
Delta-5
Active Flags13
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

CHEMFABCHEMFAB
32 Risk
Sector %ile57th
Delta-3
Active Flags9
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

TATACHEMTata Chemicals Limited
59 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+27
Active Flags27
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
0.54.8th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
1.413.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2026

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Revenue-Debt Divergence

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY2026320-338123
FY2025341-74083
FY20243362612618
FY202333765930