CHEMPLASTSCHEMPLASTS Forensic Risk Analysis

Commodity Chemicals
Risk ClassWatch
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
34 / 100
-8 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in competitive position. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

71.4th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹214.52▼1.74%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+15.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+11.5 pts
Stability Adjustment
+7.0 pts
Final Composite Risk34 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 34 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Industrial Margin Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (10)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
CHEMPLASTS: EBITDA margin compressed by 12.1 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 3.5% of revenue YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 12 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
CHEMPLASTS: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -0.06x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
CHEMPLASTS: Net Profit collapsed by 368.9% from FY2025 Q1 to FY2026 Q1.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
CHEMPLASTS: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Inventory growth (47.0%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-2.1%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 49.8%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (19.3%) amidst slow revenue growth (3.6%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
CHEMPLASTS: Revenue fell 3.2% while Debt rose 6.0% in 2026 vs 2025.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)6.9211.00✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+32.0+35.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Commodity Chemicals (n=15 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹214.52(-1.74%)
1M Divergence-8.43%
1 Week-7.03%
1 Month-6.16%
6 Months-21.74%
1 Year-49.47%
2 Year-54.35%
3 Year-52.28%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in competitive position suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

CHEMPLASTS • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.8956σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2488 of 2716
Top 91.61% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-7.0%
1M-6.2%
6M-21.7%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹271.93
200 DMA₹307.01
150 DMA Slope-7.1859%Declining
Relative Strength-16.25%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.4943
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (31).
ANDHRSUGARThe Andhra Sugars Limited
12 Risk
Sector %ile7th
Delta0
Active Flags21
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

AMNPLSTAmines & Plasticizers Limited
31 Risk
Sector %ile50th
Delta-5
Active Flags13
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

CHEMPLASTSCHEMPLASTS
34 Risk
Sector %ile71th
Delta-8
Active Flags10
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

TATACHEMTata Chemicals Limited
59 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+27
Active Flags27
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
4.242.4th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2025

Capex Efficiency Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Negative FCF Streak

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Industrial Margin Stress

2024

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Revenue-Debt Divergence

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20264,252-2802941,952
FY20254,393-1101721,841
FY20244,003-158-2451,542
FY20235,0211523551,008