CHENNPETROChennai Petroleum Corporation Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Refineries & Marketing
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹13,975 Cr
Primary DriverGrowth Sustainability
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
20 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in growth sustainability. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

80.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹1,141.6▲4.08%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
+2.0 pts
Final Composite Risk20 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 20 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (25.5%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-0.6%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
CHENNPETRO: Net Profit collapsed by 111.2% from FY2025 Q1 to FY2026 Q1.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
CHENNPETRO: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -1.16x in FY2026 Q1 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
CHENNPETRO: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 21.4%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
CHENNPETRO: Revenue fell 10.4% while Debt rose 12.3% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)6.5811.56✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+46.0+50.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Refineries & Marketing (n=6 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹1,141.6(+4.08%)
1M Divergence-1.09%
1 Week+11.94%
1 Month+1.17%
6 Months+23.68%
1 Year+73.84%
2 Year+32.28%
3 Year+241.85%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in growth sustainability suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

CHENNPETRO • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.95%
Trend QualityStrong
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score82.5%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing95%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.5708σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#412 of 2716
Top 15.17% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+11.9%
1M+1.2%
6M+23.7%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹943.46
200 DMA₹886.85
150 DMA Slope+4.0762%Rising
Relative Strength+29.17%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.9709
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (16).
BPCLBharat Petroleum Corporation Limited
16 Risk
Sector %ile40th
Delta+5
Active Flags11
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Stable

CHENNPETROChennai Petroleum Corporation Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile80th
Delta-5
Active Flags8
Accel+0
Growth Sustainability

Watch

MRPLMangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+10
Active Flags18
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202678,6763,1032,9451,951
FY202571,0752141,3523,100
FY202479,2832,7452,6942,762
FY202390,9153,5326,7864,235