CHOLAHLDNGCholamandalam Financial Holdings Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Investment Company
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹26,240 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
8 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

42.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
1,480.52.69%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+13.2 pts
Stability Adjustment
-5.0 pts
Final Composite Risk8 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 08 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • NIM Compression
  • Operating Leverage Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh
NIM Compression
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
CHOLAHLDNG: NIM decline is accelerating (24 bps drop vs prev -50 bps).

"NIM is under severe pressure due to rising cost of funds or falling asset yields."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.364.02⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+58.0+56.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Investment Company (n=27 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
1,480.5(-2.69%)
1M Divergence-4.13%
1 Week-10.4%
1 Month-4.86%
6 Months-21.36%
1 Year-21.23%
2 Year+36.66%
3 Year+82.81%
Sector Average (1M)-0.73%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

CHOLAHLDNG • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score7.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.7413σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2360 of 2716
Top 86.89% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-10.4%
1M-4.9%
6M-21.4%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA1,720.12
200 DMA1,754.4
150 DMA Slope-1.6397%Declining
Relative Strength-15.87%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0224
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (10).

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
3.434th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202639,5765,485-30,033210,400
FY202533,4604,740-34,201174,366
FY202426,0873,851-35,726134,014
FY202318,3762,810-29,32997,191