COCHINSHIPCochin Shipyard Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Ship Building & Allied Services
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹38,223 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
25 / 100
-10 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
1,467.72.68%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+13.5 pts
Earnings Quality
+11.9 pts
Final Composite Risk25 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 025 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh
Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 115.6%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
COCHINSHIP: Raw material costs consumed an additional 7.2% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 6.4 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (24.4%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (0.1%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
COCHINSHIP: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
COCHINSHIP: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)7.7310.21✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+41.0+46.5📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Ship Building & Allied Services (n=2 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
1,467.7(+2.68%)
1M Divergence-17.6%
1 Week-3.83%
1 Month-15.33%
6 Months-10.32%
1 Year-23.22%
2 Year-23.66%
3 Year+501.69%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

COCHINSHIP • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.4250σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1931 of 2716
Top 71.10% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-3.8%
1M-15.3%
6M-10.3%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA1,566.84
200 DMA1,612.5
150 DMA Slope-1.8694%Declining
Relative Strength-4.83%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.6592
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (19.5).
COCHINSHIPCochin Shipyard Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta-10
Active Flags7
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
2.120.8th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
3.232.5th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20265,432717-1,2341,099
FY20255,209827-29769
FY20244,141783-17223
FY20232,5723051,889133