COFFEEDAYCOFFEEDAY Forensic Risk Analysis

Restaurants
Risk ClassStable
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
4 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

14.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹40.76▲6.56%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment
+4.0 pts
Final Composite Risk4 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 11 → 4 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Low Interest Coverage
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Operating margin declined by 14.2 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 7 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
COFFEEDAY: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.11x in FY2026 Q2 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (11.0%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2025
COFFEEDAY: Net Profit collapsed by 115.2% from FY2024 Q3 to FY2025 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.755.92✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+62.0+52.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Restaurants (n=8 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹40.76(+6.56%)
1M Divergence+54.01%
1 Week+59.59%
1 Month+54.39%
6 Months+21.96%
1 Year+31.53%
2 Year-24.38%
3 Year+10.76%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

COFFEEDAY • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.29%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score65%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing29%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+2.4868σ
Strong positive momentum leadership
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#67 of 2716
Top 2.47% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+59.6%
1M+54.4%
6M+22.0%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹31.39
200 DMA₹34.27
150 DMA Slope-5.9783%Declining
Relative Strength+27.45%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.4854
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (14).
COFFEEDAYCOFFEEDAY
4 Risk
Sector %ile14th
Delta-5
Active Flags4
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

JUBLFOODJubilant Foodworks Limited
6 Risk
Sector %ile29th
Delta0
Active Flags12
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

DEVYANIDevyani International Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile71th
Delta-5
Active Flags21
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

SAPPHIRESapphire Foods India Limited
27 Risk
Sector %ile86th
Delta+5
Active Flags26
Accel+4
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Margin Compression

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,154210172579
FY20251,126-1431961,373
FY20241,118-3071891,363
FY20231,029-3871721,842