COSMOFIRSTCOSMOFIRST Forensic Risk Analysis

Packaging
Risk ClassStable
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
8 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in profitability and earnings quality. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

22.7th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹734.35▲2.47%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+6.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
+2.0 pts
Final Composite Risk8 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 4 → 8 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Operating Leverage Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (9)

CriticalHigh
Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
COSMOFIRST: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2024
COSMOFIRST: Net Profit collapsed by 51.7% from FY2023 Q4 to FY2024 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 7 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
COSMOFIRST: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.84x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (36.2%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (21.3%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 4.5%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2024
COSMOFIRST: EBITDA margin compressed by 1.6 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 3.8% of revenue YoY.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2024
Aggressive Capex (21.1%) amidst slow revenue growth (-14.5%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
COSMOFIRST: Revenue fell 14.8% while Debt rose 9.9% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.836.71✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+58.0+51.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Packaging (n=23 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹734.35(+2.47%)
1M Divergence+0.62%
1 Week-4.86%
1 Month+2.89%
6 Months+0.2%
1 Year-40.49%
2 Year+33.69%
3 Year+24.32%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

COSMOFIRST • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.9%
Trend QualityEarly Base
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score30%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing9%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.0382σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1063 of 2716
Top 39.14% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-4.9%
1M+2.9%
6M+0.2%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹705.2
200 DMA₹765.28
150 DMA Slope-2.2346%Declining
Relative Strength+6.12%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.5610
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (15).
COSMOFIRSTCOSMOFIRST
8 Risk
Sector %ile23th
Delta-5
Active Flags9
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

AERONEUAeroflex Neu Limited
15 Risk
Sector %ile36th
Delta+5
Active Flags19
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Stable

AMDINDAMD Industries Limited
19 Risk
Sector %ile55th
Delta-5
Active Flags24
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

ARROWGREENArrow Greentech Limited
47 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+27
Active Flags11
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Industrial Margin Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Revenue-Debt Divergence

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20263,7411563971,586
FY20252,9701331661,357
FY20242,65562245978
FY20233,117244465890