DABURDabur India Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Personal Care
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹89,944 Cr
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
11 / 100
0 QoQ
Stable
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure has stabilized in competitive position. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. No major change in risk trend.

25.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹425.5▲0.21%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+10.6 pts
Final Composite Risk11 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 11 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Operating Leverage Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (3)

CriticalHigh
Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Inventory growth (18.1%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (0.9%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)2.648.86✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+55.0+51.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Personal Care (n=9 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹425.5(+0.21%)
1M Divergence-5.89%
1 Week-4.94%
1 Month-3.62%
6 Months-16.26%
1 Year-10.82%
2 Year-19.99%
3 Year-20.95%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in competitive position remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

DABUR • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score7.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.7222σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2336 of 2716
Top 86.01% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-4.9%
1M-3.6%
6M-16.3%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹485.29
200 DMA₹492.24
150 DMA Slope-1.0503%Declining
Relative Strength-10.77%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.9646
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (15).
BAJAJCONBajaj Consumer Care Limited
8 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta-5
Active Flags12
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

DABURDabur India Limited
11 Risk
Sector %ile25th
Delta0
Active Flags3
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Stable

EMAMILTDEmami Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile75th
Delta-5
Active Flags9
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

COLPALColgate Palmolive (India) Limited
28 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta-2
Active Flags20
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
329.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202613,7921,8692,5791,063
FY202513,1131,7401,987730
FY202412,8861,8112,0131,158
FY202311,9751,7011,488999