Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹338.35(▲0.67%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

DALMIASUGDALMIASUG Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: DALMIASUG Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Sugar

Risk ClassStable

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverCompetitive Position

Flagium AI Risk Score

15 / 100

+5 QoQ

Deteriorating

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in competitive position. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

15.4th %ile (Sector)Accel: +3 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹338.35▲0.67%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position

+15.0 pts

Growth Sustainability

+10.0 pts

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.0 pts

Stability Adjustment

-18.0 pts

Final Composite Risk15 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 15 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🚨 Escalate

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Relative Growth Weakness
Working Capital Expansion

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover
Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Inventory growth (2.2%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-1.3%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

DALMIASUG: Net Profit collapsed by 64.8% from FY2025 Q2 to FY2026 Q2.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

DALMIASUG: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 38.3%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

DALMIASUG: Revenue fell 2.8% while Debt rose 71.5% in 2026 vs 2025.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	4.17	11.92	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+51.0	+44.5	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Sugar (n=14 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹338.35(+0.67%)

1M Divergence-17.15%

1 Week-0.73%

1 Month-14.88%

6 Months+16.17%

1 Year-21.26%

2 Year-5.86%

3 Year-3.55%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in competitive position remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

DALMIASUG • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.18%

Trend QualityEarly Base

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score30%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing18%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.1656σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1337 of 2716

Top 49.23% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-0.7%

1M-14.9%

6M+16.2%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹320.54

200 DMA₹330.7

150 DMA Slope-0.0530%Declining

Relative Strength+18.92%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.7115

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (21.5).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
DALMIASUGDALMIASUG	15	15th	+5	7	+3	Competitive PositionStable
BAJAJHINDBajaj Hindusthan Sugar Limited	23	62th	-5	25	+0	Competitive PositionWatch
AVADHSUGARAvadh Sugar & Energy Limited	29	77th	-5	24	+0	Competitive PositionWatch
DCMSRINDDCMSRIND	35	85th	0	28	+0	Competitive PositionWatch