DAVANGEREDAVANGERE Forensic Risk Analysis

Diversified FMCG
Risk ClassWatch
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
27 / 100
+4 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is gradually increasing.

50.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹3.69▼3.15%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+15.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+11.5 pts
Final Composite Risk27 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 10 → 27 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Margin Compression
  • Industrial Margin Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (11)

CriticalHigh
Industrial Margin Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 6 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
DAVANGERE: EBITDA margin compressed by 4.9 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 78.1%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 10 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
DAVANGERE: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.31x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
DAVANGERE: Net Profit collapsed by 61.3% from FY2025 Q3 to FY2026 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (49.5%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (22.6%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
DAVANGERE: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
DAVANGERE: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 2.2 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
DAVANGERE: Revenue fell 2.8% while Debt rose 2.5% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.926.99✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+39.0+39.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Diversified FMCG (n=5 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹3.69(-3.15%)
1M Divergence-0.89%
1 Week-9.34%
1 Month+1.37%
6 Months-4.65%
1 Year+1.37%
2 Year-65.19%
3 Year-61.72%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

DAVANGERE • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.38%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score42.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing38%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.5043σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2068 of 2716
Top 76.14% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-9.3%
1M+1.4%
6M-4.7%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹3.98
200 DMA₹3.89
150 DMA Slope+0.6040%Rising
Relative Strength+0.84%Neutral
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.1879
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (27).
HINDUNILVRHindustan Unilever Limited
16 Risk
Sector %ile25th
Delta+5
Active Flags9
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Stable

DAVANGEREDAVANGERE
27 Risk
Sector %ile50th
Delta+4
Active Flags11
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

GODAVARIBGODAVARIB
31 Risk
Sector %ile75th
Delta+11
Active Flags13
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
4.242.4th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20262419-71250
FY202521711-4271
FY202422312-11264