DBLDilip Buildcon Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Civil Construction
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹6,888 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
6 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Weakness is detected in project execution and margins. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

38.5th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹420.65▲0.84%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+7.7 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+5.8 pts
Stability Adjustment
-7.0 pts
Final Composite Risk6 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 7 → 6 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Profit Collapse
  • Low Interest Coverage
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Operating cash flow
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (11.0%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
DBL: Net Profit collapsed by 55.2% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
DBL: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
DBL: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 11 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
DBL: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.65x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
DBL: Revenue fell 5.8% while Debt rose 31.6% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)2.584.13✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+60.0+56.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Civil Construction (n=53 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹420.65(+0.84%)
1M Divergence-9.88%
1 Week-2.81%
1 Month-9.5%
6 Months-7.82%
1 Year-13.55%
2 Year+4.04%
3 Year+99.55%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

DBL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.4497σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1981 of 2716
Top 72.94% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-2.8%
1M-9.5%
6M-7.8%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹452.87
200 DMA₹464.64
150 DMA Slope-1.8930%Declining
Relative Strength-3.62%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.3578
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (10).
ABINFRAA B Infrabuild Limited
0 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta0
Active Flags1
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

DBLDilip Buildcon Limited
6 Risk
Sector %ile38th
Delta+5
Active Flags6
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

ASHOKAAshoka Buildcon Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile81th
Delta-5
Active Flags15
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

AFCONSAfcons Infrastructure Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile90th
Delta+25
Active Flags12
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
6.261.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
6.261.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2025

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2025

Negative FCF Streak

2024

Negative FCF Streak

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20269,5001,3981,2048,041
FY202511,453840-5659,525
FY202412,1562018127,240
FY202310,712-12,8456,658