DCXINDIADCXINDIA Forensic Risk Analysis

Aerospace & Defense
Risk ClassModerate Deterioration
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Moderate stress emerging. While not critical, underlying pressure is building.
53 / 100
+18 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Some early signs of pressure are visible. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹197.59▲3.43%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+15.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+14.8 pts
Competitive Position
+13.0 pts
Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Final Composite Risk53 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 53 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Margin Compression
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (10)

CriticalHigh
Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 116.3%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (85.8%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-62.4%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (13.0%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 3.4 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (38.4%) amidst slow revenue growth (-5.0%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
DCXINDIA: EBITDA margin compressed by 2.2 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 65.8% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
DCXINDIA: Net Profit collapsed by 101.5% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
DCXINDIA: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Operating Leverage Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
DCXINDIA: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.73x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)8.457.38⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.23%5%🚨 HIGH
Safety Buffer+13.0+46.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Aerospace & Defense (n=21 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹197.59(+3.43%)
1M Divergence-3.95%
1 Week-6.66%
1 Month-1.68%
6 Months+13.8%
1 Year-35.55%
2 Year-36.44%
3 Year-11.1%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Moderate Stress and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

DCXINDIA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.8%
Trend QualityEarly Base
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score40%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing8%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.1592σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#737 of 2716
Top 27.14% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-6.7%
1M-1.7%
6M+13.8%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹186.96
200 DMA₹204.01
150 DMA Slope-2.7957%Declining
Relative Strength+19.29%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.6702
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (20).
APOLLOApollo Micro Systems Limited
0 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta0
Active Flags10
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

AEQUSAequs Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile50th
Delta+15
Active Flags3
Accel+2
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

DCXINDIADCXINDIA
53 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+18
Active Flags10
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
2.625.8th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
1.413.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Industrial Margin Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY2026788-82-
FY20251,164394960
FY20241,473764291
FY20231,28372-590509