DEEPAKNTRDeepak Nitrite Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Specialty Chemicals
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹21,073 Cr
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
25 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in competitive position. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

58.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹1,686.5▲0.98%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+15.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
+2.0 pts
Final Composite Risk25 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 10 → 25 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Operating cash flow
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (10)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
DEEPAKNTR: EBITDA margin compressed by 4.5 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 4.4 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (34.4%) amidst slow revenue growth (-6.4%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
DEEPAKNTR: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2025
DEEPAKNTR: Net Profit collapsed by 51.4% from FY2024 Q3 to FY2025 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 22.4%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
DEEPAKNTR: Revenue fell 5.0% while Debt rose 30.5% in 2026 vs 2025.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Inventory growth (26.3%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (14.4%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)7.0810.68✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+41.0+46.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Specialty Chemicals (n=51 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹1,686.5(+0.98%)
1M Divergence-5.17%
1 Week-2.35%
1 Month-2.9%
6 Months+9.96%
1 Year-15.1%
2 Year-22.52%
3 Year-18.33%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in competitive position suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

DEEPAKNTR • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.13%
Trend QualityEarly Base
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score40%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing13%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.0613σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#884 of 2716
Top 32.55% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-2.4%
1M-2.9%
6M+10.0%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹1,622.18
200 DMA₹1,667.21
150 DMA Slope-0.2060%Declining
Relative Strength+16.15%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.4490
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (20).
AARTIINDAarti Industries Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile46th
Delta-5
Active Flags24
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

DEEPAKNTRDeepak Nitrite Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile58th
Delta-5
Active Flags10
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

CAMLINFINECamlin Fine Sciences Limited
37 Risk
Sector %ile94th
Delta+2
Active Flags27
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

CHEMBONDChembond Material Technologies Limited
37 Risk
Sector %ile94th
Delta-8
Active Flags12
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Industrial Margin Stress

2024

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20267,9475515391,528
FY20258,3666976251,171
FY20247,758811878217
FY20238,02085265054