DEVYANIDevyani International Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Restaurants
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹15,122 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
20 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

71.4th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹111.83▼1.96%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+8.6 pts
Stability Adjustment
+11.0 pts
Final Composite Risk20 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 22 → 20 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • Low Interest Coverage
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 12 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
DEVYANI: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 0.74x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 6 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
DEVYANI: Net Profit collapsed by 90.1% from FY2025 Q1 to FY2026 Q1.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 2.3 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.335.92✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+46.0+52.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Restaurants (n=8 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹111.83(-1.96%)
1M Divergence-10.72%
1 Week-3.92%
1 Month-10.34%
6 Months-19.5%
1 Year-33.86%
2 Year-27.38%
3 Year-39.75%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

DEVYANI • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score7.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.5641σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2163 of 2716
Top 79.64% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-3.9%
1M-10.3%
6M-19.5%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹126.96
200 DMA₹137.96
150 DMA Slope-5.0822%Declining
Relative Strength-14.01%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.9892
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (14).
DEVYANIDevyani International Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile71th
Delta-5
Active Flags4
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

SAPPHIRESapphire Foods India Limited
27 Risk
Sector %ile86th
Delta+5
Active Flags26
Accel+4
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
4.242.4th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20265,657-439191,360
FY20254,988-7900932
FY20243,589-10592910
FY20233,03026363777