Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹138.85(▼0.85%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

DHAMPURSUGDHAMPURSUG Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: DHAMPURSUG Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Sugar

Risk ClassWatch

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

20 / 100

+1 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is gradually increasing.

30.8th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹138.85▼0.85%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+11.9 pts

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.0 pts

Final Composite Risk20 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 8 → 20 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover
Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (9)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 6 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

DHAMPURSUG: Raw material costs consumed an additional 5.6% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2025

Operating margin declined by 5.9 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

DHAMPURSUG: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -0.21x in FY2026 Q2 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2025

DHAMPURSUG: Net Profit collapsed by 52.3% from FY2024 Q3 to FY2025 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Inventory growth (171.7%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-0.2%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2024

DHAMPURSUG: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -10.2%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2024

DHAMPURSUG: Revenue fell 7.5% while Debt rose 32.7% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	6	11.92	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+46.0	+44.5	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Sugar (n=14 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹138.85(-0.85%)

1M Divergence-11.64%

1 Week-4.07%

1 Month-9.37%

6 Months+16.33%

1 Year-5.49%

2 Year-35.2%

3 Year-44.46%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently consolidating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

DHAMPURSUG • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.82%

Trend QualityStabilizing

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score50%

Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)

Probability of Advancing82%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.0017σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1004 of 2716

Top 36.97% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-4.1%

1M-9.4%

6M+16.3%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹128.35

200 DMA₹129.62

150 DMA Slope+1.0563%Rising

Relative Strength+21.82%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)2.3326

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (21.5).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
DHAMPURSUGDHAMPURSUG	20	31th	+1	9	+1	Earnings QualityWatch
AVADHSUGARAvadh Sugar & Energy Limited	29	77th	-5	24	+0	Competitive PositionWatch
DCMSRINDDCMSRIND	35	85th	0	28	+0	Competitive PositionWatch
RENUKAShree Renuka Sugars Limited	35	85th	+1	28	+1	Competitive PositionWatch