EPLEPL Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Packaging
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹6,770 Cr
Primary DriverGrowth Sustainability
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
5 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in growth sustainability. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

4.5th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹210.42▼1.59%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+6.4 pts
Earnings Quality
+4.8 pts
Stability Adjustment
-16.0 pts
Final Composite Risk5 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 5 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh
Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2024
EPL: Net Profit collapsed by 82.3% from FY2023 Q4 to FY2024 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (28.7%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (17.4%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 6.1%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Aggressive Capex (15.8%) amidst slow revenue growth (8.8%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2024
EPL: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.92x in FY2024 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.096.71✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+61.0+51.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Packaging (n=23 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹210.42(-1.59%)
1M Divergence-9.21%
1 Week-3.96%
1 Month-6.95%
6 Months+3.88%
1 Year-9.96%
2 Year+20.55%
3 Year+12.13%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in growth sustainability remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

EPL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.65%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score57.5%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing65%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.3103σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1672 of 2716
Top 61.56% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-4.0%
1M-7.0%
6M+3.9%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹210.09
200 DMA₹212.1
150 DMA Slope+0.8459%Rising
Relative Strength+9.54%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.1816
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (15).
EPLEPL Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile5th
Delta+5
Active Flags7
Accel+1
Growth Sustainability

Stable

AERONEUAeroflex Neu Limited
15 Risk
Sector %ile36th
Delta+5
Active Flags19
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Stable

AMDINDAMD Industries Limited
19 Risk
Sector %ile55th
Delta-5
Active Flags24
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

ARROWGREENArrow Greentech Limited
47 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+27
Active Flags11
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
6.868th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
6.868th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Capex Efficiency Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20264,807394723709
FY20254,257364795673
FY20243,976210587804
FY20233,736231602769