ESSARSHPNGESSARSHPNG Forensic Risk Analysis

Shipping
Risk ClassWatch
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
30 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹23.45▼0.09%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+10.6 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.6 pts
Stability Adjustment
+11.0 pts
Final Composite Risk30 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 22 → 30 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Low Interest Coverage
  • Profit Collapse
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 180.5 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 8 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
ESSARSHPNG: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -0.29x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 6 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
ESSARSHPNG: Net Profit collapsed by 378.3% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
ESSARSHPNG: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)8.179.14✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+36.0+46.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Shipping (n=5 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹23.45(-0.09%)
1M Divergence-13.33%
1 Week-0.76%
1 Month-12.95%
6 Months-17.11%
1 Year-27.35%
2 Year-22.35%
3 Year+157.69%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

ESSARSHPNG • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.1%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score7.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing1%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.5960σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2197 of 2716
Top 80.89% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-0.8%
1M-12.9%
6M-17.1%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹27.26
200 DMA₹27.07
150 DMA Slope-2.2279%Declining
Relative Strength-11.72%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.8205
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (20).
SCIShipping Corporation Of India Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile25th
Delta-5
Active Flags8
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

GESHIPThe Great Eastern Shipping Company Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile50th
Delta-5
Active Flags5
Accel+0
Governance

Watch

ESSARSHPNGESSARSHPNG
30 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta-5
Active Flags4
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
4.747.2th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
4.242.4th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202698-112-1291,615
FY20252476605311,631
FY202483-104-472,642
FY20231651,6505142,704