Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹2,359.6(▲1.46%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

ETHOSLTDEthos Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Ethos Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Gems Jewellery And Watches

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹6,395 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

7 / 100

0 QoQ

Stable

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure has stabilized in profitability and earnings quality. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. No major change in risk trend.

21.7th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹2,359.6▲1.46%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+6.6 pts

Final Composite Risk7 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 13 → 7 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Working Capital Expansion
Operating Leverage Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating cash flow
Operating profit margins
Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

ETHOSLTD: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Negative FCF Streak

⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2025

ETHOSLTD: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"Free cash flow pressure is easing as capital intensity or working capital stress recedes."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -3.6%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Inventory growth (34.8%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (21.6%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	4.83	6.37	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+59.0	+52.5	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Gems Jewellery And Watches (n=24 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹2,359.6(+1.46%)

1M Divergence-4.02%

1 Week-1.66%

1 Month-1.76%

6 Months-24.24%

1 Year-15.67%

2 Year-3.29%

3 Year+84.92%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

ETHOSLTD • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.1%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing1%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.5070σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#2073 of 2716

Top 76.33% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-1.7%

1M-1.8%

6M-24.2%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹2,612.93

200 DMA₹2,600.55

150 DMA Slope-1.5383%Declining

Relative Strength-18.96%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.3023

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (13.5).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
ETHOSLTDEthos Limited	7	22th	0	5	+0	Earnings QualityStable
AUSOMENTAusom Enterprise Limited	12	43th	+1	11	+3	Earnings QualityStable
BANARBEADSBanaras Beads Limited	25	91th	-5	11	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
LGHLLGHL	35	100th	+20	22	+1	Earnings QualityWatch