Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹1,002.1(▲1.25%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

FINCABLESFinolex Cables Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Finolex Cables Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Cables - Electricals

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹14,422 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

18 / 100

+5 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

50.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹1,002.1▲1.25%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+15.0 pts

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.0 pts

Stability Adjustment

-5.0 pts

Final Composite Risk18 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 18 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover
Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

FINCABLES: EBITDA margin compressed by 2.9 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 9.9% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 3.0 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Inventory growth (31.4%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (3.7%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

FINCABLES: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 26.9%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2025

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	2.75	6.78	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+48.0	+48.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Cables - Electricals (n=9 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹1,002.1(+1.25%)

1M Divergence-1.1%

1 Week-7.74%

1 Month+1.17%

6 Months+35.3%

1 Year+5.44%

2 Year-29.13%

3 Year+28.73%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

FINCABLES • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.97%

Trend QualityStrong

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score75%

Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)

Probability of Advancing97%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.3206σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#583 of 2716

Top 21.47% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-7.7%

1M+1.2%

6M+35.3%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹845.74

200 DMA₹840.4

150 DMA Slope+4.3007%Rising

Relative Strength+40.79%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)2.1295

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (18).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
FINCABLESFinolex Cables Limited	18	50th	+5	7	+1	Earnings QualityStable
PARACABLESPARACABLES	20	63th	-15	17	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
AURIGROWAuri Grow India Limited	31	88th	-5	18	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
QUADFUTUREQUADFUTURE	35	100th	+11	16	+1	Balance Sheet StressWatch