Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹155.62(▲1.84%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

GAELGujarat Ambuja Exports Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Gujarat Ambuja Exports Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Other Agricultural Products

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹6,394 Cr

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

9 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

15.4th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹155.62▲1.84%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.0 pts

Stability Adjustment

+1.0 pts

Final Composite Risk9 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 9 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Margin Compression
Working Capital Expansion

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating cash flow
Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

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Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

GAEL: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

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Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

GAEL: Net Profit collapsed by 65.1% from FY2024 Q4 to FY2025 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

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Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

Inventory growth (66.4%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (5.8%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

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Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 6.0%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 2.4 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

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Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2025

GAEL: Revenue fell 7.4% while Debt rose 11.6% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	3.83	8.70	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+57.0	+49.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Other Agricultural Products (n=14 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹155.62(+1.84%)

1M Divergence-2.35%

1 Week-4.2%

1 Month-0.08%

6 Months+30.29%

1 Year+36.25%

2 Year+9.09%

3 Year+22.94%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

GAEL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.97%

Trend QualityStrong

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score75%

Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)

Probability of Advancing97%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.2610σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#642 of 2716

Top 23.64% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-4.2%

1M-0.1%

6M+30.3%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹134.56

200 DMA₹127.39

150 DMA Slope+5.8772%Rising

Relative Strength+35.78%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.6592

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (17).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AVTNPLAVT Natural Products Limited	6	8th	-2	17	+0	Balance Sheet StressStable
GAELGujarat Ambuja Exports Limited	9	15th	-5	7	+0	Balance Sheet StressStable
AGRITECHAgri-Tech (India) Limited	25	69th	+5	15	+1	Earnings QualityWatch
KSCLKaveri Seed Company Limited	43	100th	+21	21	+1	Balance Sheet StressModerate Deterioration