GANESHBEGANESHBE Forensic Risk Analysis

Oil Storage & Transportation
Risk ClassStable
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
15 / 100
+3 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Weakness is detected in project execution and margins. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is gradually increasing.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹93.8▼0.22%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+15.0 pts
Final Composite Risk15 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 15 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (10)

CriticalHigh
Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
GANESHBE: EBITDA margin compressed by 11.3 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 11.1 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 45.0%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (176.0%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (4.0%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
GANESHBE: Net Profit collapsed by 192.3% from FY2024 Q4 to FY2025 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
GANESHBE: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -5.91x in FY2025 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (17.5%) amidst slow revenue growth (4.0%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
GANESHBE: Revenue fell 20.1% while Debt rose 45.8% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)12.279.29⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+51.0+53.5📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Oil Storage & Transportation (n=2 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹93.8(-0.22%)
1M Divergence-8.64%
1 Week-5.05%
1 Month-6.38%
6 Months+15.18%
1 Year-15.31%
2 Year-34.31%
3 Year-39.62%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

GANESHBE • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.83%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score60%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing83%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.1840σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#712 of 2716
Top 26.22% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-5.0%
1M-6.4%
6M+15.2%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹84.37
200 DMA₹86.41
150 DMA Slope+1.2342%Rising
Relative Strength+19.61%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)2.1642
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (12.5).
AEGISVOPAKAegis Vopak Terminals Limited
10 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta+5
Active Flags6
Accel+1
Growth Sustainability

Stable

GANESHBEGANESHBE
15 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+3
Active Flags10
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Capex Efficiency Stress

2025

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY2026437737924
FY2025392385519
FY2024491618313
FY2023429554119