GEMAROMAGEMAROMA Forensic Risk Analysis

Specialty Chemicals
Risk ClassWatch
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
25 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

58.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹151.04▲0%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+6.4 pts
Stability Adjustment
+19.0 pts
Final Composite Risk25 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 25 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Working Capital Expansion
  • Capex Efficiency Stress
  • Low Interest Coverage
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (3)

CriticalHigh
Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 392.1%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (74.0%) amidst slow revenue growth (-75.4%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
GEMAROMA: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.36x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.0910.68✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+41.0+46.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Specialty Chemicals (n=51 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹151.04(+0%)
1M Divergence-9.93%
1 Week-0.24%
1 Month-7.66%
6 Months-1.57%
1 YearN/A
2 Year-45.31%
3 Year-45.31%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

GEMAROMA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.1%
Trend QualityEarly Base
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score7.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing1%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.7917σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2403 of 2716
Top 88.48% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-0.2%
1M-7.7%
6M-1.6%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹174.29
200 DMA₹N/A
150 DMA Slope-6.6446%Declining
Relative Strength-5.17%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0000
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (20).
AARTIINDAarti Industries Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile46th
Delta-5
Active Flags24
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

GEMAROMAGEMAROMA
25 Risk
Sector %ile58th
Delta-5
Active Flags3
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

CAMLINFINECamlin Fine Sciences Limited
37 Risk
Sector %ile94th
Delta+2
Active Flags27
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

CHEMBONDChembond Material Technologies Limited
37 Risk
Sector %ile94th
Delta-8
Active Flags12
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
6.868th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY2026367130150