GLOSTERLTDGLOSTERLTD Forensic Risk Analysis

Jute & Jute Products
Risk ClassModerate Deterioration
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Moderate stress emerging. While not critical, underlying pressure is building.
40 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Some early signs of pressure are visible. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +2 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹657.95▼1.21%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+20.0 pts
Earnings Quality
+10.8 pts
Growth Sustainability
+9.6 pts
Final Composite Risk40 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 40 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Operating profit margins
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh
Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 69.0%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Aggressive Capex (69.8%) amidst slow revenue growth (-80.3%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
GLOSTERLTD: Raw material costs consumed an additional 29.1% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
GLOSTERLTD: Net Profit collapsed by 189.3% from FY2025 Q3 to FY2026 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
GLOSTERLTD: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
GLOSTERLTD: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 8 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
GLOSTERLTD: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.65x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (63.1%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (33.9%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)7.8213.54✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+26.0+25.5✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Jute & Jute Products (n=2 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹657.95(-1.21%)
1M Divergence+5.08%
1 Week-2.65%
1 Month+7.35%
6 Months+3.67%
1 Year+1.6%
2 Year-18.82%
3 Year-22.94%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Moderate Stress and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

GLOSTERLTD • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.81%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score60%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing81%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.2598σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#643 of 2716
Top 23.67% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-2.6%
1M+7.3%
6M+3.7%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹609.52
200 DMA₹621.37
150 DMA Slope+0.2998%Rising
Relative Strength+9.23%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.8806
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (40.5).
GLOSTERLTDGLOSTERLTD
40 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta+5
Active Flags8
Accel+2
Balance Sheet Stress

Moderate Deterioration

CHEVIOTCHEVIOT
41 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+21
Active Flags22
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
2.828th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
0.44th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,44518-142899
FY2025761-13-99567
FY20246602438184