Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹914.2(▲1.13%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

GMBREWGMBREW Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: GMBREW Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Breweries & Distilleries

Risk ClassStable

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

9 / 100

+4 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is gradually increasing.

23.1th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹914.2▲1.13%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.8 pts

Final Composite Risk9 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 9 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Relative Growth Weakness
Working Capital Expansion

What to Watch Next Quarter

Inventory turnover
Operating cash flow
Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Inventory growth (64.6%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (20.4%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

GMBREW: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -29.9%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	6.17	9.05	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+57.0	+52.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Breweries & Distilleries (n=14 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹914.2(+1.13%)

1M Divergence-5.81%

1 Week-3.69%

1 Month-3.54%

6 Months-6.99%

1 Year+30.35%

2 Year+51.17%

3 Year+104.96%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

GMBREW • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.16%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score20%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing16%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.5213σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#2095 of 2716

Top 77.14% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-3.7%

1M-3.5%

6M-7.0%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹1,021.25

200 DMA₹955

150 DMA Slope+0.8112%Rising

Relative Strength-1.50%Neutral

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.0857

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (14).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
BCLINDBcl Industries Limited	5	8th	+5	13	+1	Competitive PositionStable
GMBREWGMBREW	9	23th	+4	5	+1	Balance Sheet StressStable
ASALCBRAssociated Alcohols & Breweries Ltd.	34	77th	-3	19	+0	Competitive PositionWatch
ABDLAllied Blenders and Distillers Limited	35	85th	+20	15	+1	Competitive PositionWatch