Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹776.9(▼1.06%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

GMMPFAUDLRGMM Pfaudler Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: GMM Pfaudler Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Industrial Products

Risk ClassWatch

Market Cap₹4,159 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

20 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

43.2th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹776.9▼1.06%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+11.9 pts

Stability Adjustment

+8.0 pts

Final Composite Risk20 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 20 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Industrial Margin Stress
Relative Growth Weakness
Operating Leverage Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Debt growth
Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

GMMPFAUDLR: Raw material costs consumed an additional 9.2% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

GMMPFAUDLR: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 0.60x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

GMMPFAUDLR: Net Profit collapsed by 122.2% from FY2025 Q3 to FY2026 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2024

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 16.5%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	5.45	8.74	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+46.0	+45.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Industrial Products (n=45 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹776.9(-1.06%)

1M Divergence-16.47%

1 Week-2.45%

1 Month-14.21%

6 Months-29.4%

1 Year-31.32%

2 Year-36.83%

3 Year-46.16%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

GMMPFAUDLR • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score7.5%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-1.0261σ

Significant momentum lag

Universe Rank#2546 of 2716

Top 93.74% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-2.5%

1M-14.2%

6M-29.4%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹999.31

200 DMA₹1,037.1

150 DMA Slope-2.8451%Declining

Relative Strength-24.69%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0175

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (21).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AFFORDABLEAffordable Robotic & Automation Limited	10	20th	+5	6	+2	Competitive PositionStable
GMMPFAUDLRGMM Pfaudler Limited	20	43th	-5	6	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
ANUPThe Anup Engineering Limited	35	77th	+20	14	+2	Earnings QualityWatch
ATAMAtam Valves Limited	35	77th	0	11	+0	Earnings QualityWatch