Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹111.7(▲1.6%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

GMRP&UIGMR Power and Urban Infra Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: GMR Power and Urban Infra Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Power Generation

Risk ClassWatch

Market Cap₹8,798 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

35 / 100

+10 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Weakness is detected in project execution and margins. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

76.5th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹111.7▲1.6%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+19.4 pts

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.6 pts

Stability Adjustment

+7.0 pts

Final Composite Risk35 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 3 → 35 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🚨 Escalate

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Operating Leverage Stress
Low Interest Coverage

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 10 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

GMRP&UI: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 0.88x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 7 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

GMRP&UI: Net Profit collapsed by 331.6% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 8.0 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2024

GMRP&UI: Revenue fell 17.9% while Debt rose 68.9% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	6.5	7.30	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+31.0	+39.5	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Power Generation (n=18 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹111.7(+1.6%)

1M Divergence+4.45%

1 Week+4.5%

1 Month+4.83%

6 Months+0.31%

1 Year-1.1%

2 Year+69.5%

3 Year+559%

Sector Average (1M)+0.38%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

GMRP&UI • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.6%

Trend QualityEarly Base

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score37.5%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing6%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.1094σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1212 of 2716

Top 44.62% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W+4.5%

1M+4.8%

6M+0.3%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹110.36

200 DMA₹111.76

150 DMA Slope-0.4755%Declining

Relative Strength+5.79%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0945

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (26.5).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
ACMESOLARAcme Solar Holdings Limited	10	18th	+5	9	+1	Earnings QualityStable
ADANIGREENAdani Green Energy Limited	30	65th	-5	15	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
GMRP&UIGMR Power and Urban Infra Limited	35	76th	+10	5	+1	Earnings QualityWatch