Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹368.5(▲0.49%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

GNAGNA Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: GNA Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Auto Components & Equipments

Risk ClassStable

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverCompetitive Position

Flagium AI Risk Score

15 / 100

0 QoQ

Stable

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure has stabilized in competitive position. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. No major change in risk trend.

63.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹368.5▲0.49%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position

+15.0 pts

Final Composite Risk15 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 9 → 15 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Relative Growth Weakness
Working Capital Expansion

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Operating cash flow
Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

GNA: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Inventory growth (1.9%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-4.2%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2024

GNA: Net Profit collapsed by 50.8% from FY2023 Q4 to FY2024 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Capex Efficiency Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Aggressive Capex (22.5%) amidst slow revenue growth (-10.2%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 9.7%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2024

GNA: Revenue fell 4.8% while Debt rose 1.7% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	4.5	5.20	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+51.0	+55.5	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Auto Components & Equipments (n=74 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹368.5(+0.49%)

1M Divergence-16.68%

1 Week-3.48%

1 Month-14.41%

6 Months+17.32%

1 Year+9.87%

2 Year-2.6%

3 Year+1.76%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in competitive position remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

GNA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.64%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score42.5%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing64%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.3751σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1828 of 2716

Top 67.30% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-3.5%

1M-14.4%

6M+17.3%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹369.2

200 DMA₹354.49

150 DMA Slope+2.7025%Rising

Relative Strength+22.81%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0948

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (10.5).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
GNAGNA	15	63th	0	7	+0	Competitive PositionStable
ALICONAlicon Castalloy Limited	20	74th	-5	18	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
ASAHIINDIAAsahi India Glass Limited	28	88th	-5	19	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
ARE&MAmara Raja Energy & Mobility Limited	30	89th	-5	19	+0	Earnings QualityWatch