GNFCGujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Commodity Chemicals
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹6,492 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
24 / 100
-3 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

35.7th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹506.8▲1.5%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+13.2 pts
Competitive Position
+10.6 pts
Final Composite Risk24 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 24 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh
Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
GNFC: EBITDA margin compressed by 3.3 bps YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 41.4%.

"Working capital cycle is stretching dangerously. This is putting severe strain on daily operations."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
GNFC: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Inventory growth (12.3%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-1.8%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2024
GNFC: Net Profit collapsed by 61.3% from FY2023 Q4 to FY2024 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (16.6%) amidst slow revenue growth (2.7%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
GNFC: Revenue fell 0.1% while Debt rose 9800.0% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.4211.00✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+42.0+35.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Commodity Chemicals (n=15 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹506.8(+1.5%)
1M Divergence+5.72%
1 Week-2.02%
1 Month+7.99%
6 Months+0.67%
1 Year-2.06%
2 Year-15.27%
3 Year-3.84%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

GNFC • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.76%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score60%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing76%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.1943σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#702 of 2716
Top 25.85% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-2.0%
1M+8.0%
6M+0.7%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹473.82
200 DMA₹480.9
150 DMA Slope+0.2467%Rising
Relative Strength+6.15%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)2.2398
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (31).
GNFCGujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited
24 Risk
Sector %ile36th
Delta-3
Active Flags8
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

AMNPLSTAmines & Plasticizers Limited
31 Risk
Sector %ile50th
Delta-5
Active Flags13
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

GHCLGHCL Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile79th
Delta0
Active Flags17
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

DEEPAKFERTDeepak Fertilizers and Petrochemicals Corporation Limited
41 Risk
Sector %ile86th
Delta+26
Active Flags21
Accel+3
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
3.434th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
329.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2024

Industrial Margin Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20268,272808654-
FY20258,39359760699
FY20248,399497321
FY202310,5881,4721,373-