Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹999.1(▼0.98%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

GODREJCPGodrej Consumer Products Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Godrej Consumer Products Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Personal Care

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹1,20,426 Cr

Primary DriverCompetitive Position

Flagium AI Risk Score

11 / 100

-4 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in competitive position. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

25.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹999.1▼0.98%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position

+10.6 pts

Final Composite Risk11 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 21 → 11 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Inventory Stress
Relative Growth Weakness

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover
Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 2.1 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

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Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Inventory growth (18.6%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (3.6%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

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Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2024

GODREJCP: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -20.47x in FY2024 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2024

GODREJCP: Net Profit collapsed by 518.7% from FY2023 Q4 to FY2024 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

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Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

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Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2024

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 16.5%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	4.17	8.86	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+55.0	+51.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Personal Care (n=9 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹999.1(-0.98%)

1M Divergence-8.17%

1 Week-3.17%

1 Month-5.91%

6 Months-10.96%

1 Year-19.67%

2 Year-18.68%

3 Year-1.41%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in competitive position remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

GODREJCP • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.6230σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#2235 of 2716

Top 82.29% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-3.2%

1M-5.9%

6M-11.0%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹1,121.28

200 DMA₹1,137.06

150 DMA Slope-1.1559%Declining

Relative Strength-5.47%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.2297

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (15).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
BAJAJCONBajaj Consumer Care Limited	8	0th	-5	12	+0	GovernanceStable
GODREJCPGodrej Consumer Products Limited	11	25th	-4	7	+0	Competitive PositionStable
EMAMILTDEmami Limited	25	75th	-5	9	+0	Competitive PositionWatch
COLPALColgate Palmolive (India) Limited	28	100th	-2	20	+0	Competitive PositionWatch