GOKEXGokaldas Exports Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Garments & Apparels
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹4,744 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
36 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

93.8th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹700.75▲0.07%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+12.1 pts
Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Competitive Position
+9.6 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.8 pts
Stability Adjustment
-5.0 pts
Final Composite Risk36 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 36 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating profit margins
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (9)

CriticalHigh
Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (28.2%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (5.1%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
GOKEX: Net Profit collapsed by 71.0% from FY2025 Q3 to FY2026 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
GOKEX: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
GOKEX: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Industrial Margin Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
GOKEX: EBITDA margin compressed by 1.7 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 6 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 33.4%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
GOKEX: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.09x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)105.02⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+30.0+56.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Garments & Apparels (n=17 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹700.75(+0.07%)
1M Divergence-2.69%
1 Week-0.45%
1 Month-0.42%
6 Months-19.1%
1 Year-25.05%
2 Year-17.45%
3 Year+53.61%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

GOKEX • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.2014σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1420 of 2716
Top 52.28% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-0.5%
1M-0.4%
6M-19.1%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹730.65
200 DMA₹736.15
150 DMA Slope-1.1809%Declining
Relative Strength-13.61%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.5972
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (10).
ARVINDArvind Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile19th
Delta-5
Active Flags10
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

GOKEXGokaldas Exports Limited
36 Risk
Sector %ile94th
Delta+5
Active Flags9
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

KITEXKitex Garments Limited
40 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta0
Active Flags29
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
1.919.2th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
5.656th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
3.636th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Industrial Margin Stress

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20264,06510052978
FY20253,91715957643
FY20242,409131-177620
FY20232,24717337135