Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹1,319.9(▲0.14%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

GOODLUCKGOODLUCK Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: GOODLUCK Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Iron & Steel Products

Risk ClassWatch

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverGrowth Sustainability

Flagium AI Risk Score

20 / 100

+3 QoQ

Deteriorating

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in growth sustainability. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

62.5th %ile (Sector)Accel: +5 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹1,319.9▲0.14%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Growth Sustainability

+10.0 pts

Competitive Position

+9.6 pts

Final Composite Risk20 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 13 → 20 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🚨 Escalate

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress
Relative Growth Weakness

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover
Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

GOODLUCK: Raw material costs consumed an additional 6.6% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Inventory growth (36.3%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-1.4%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

GOODLUCK: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Negative FCF Streak

⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

GOODLUCK: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 17.9%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	4.42	7.53	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+46.0	+51.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Iron & Steel Products (n=41 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹1,319.9(+0.14%)

1M Divergence+2.93%

1 Week-1.34%

1 Month+5.2%

6 Months+17.41%

1 Year+38%

2 Year+50.18%

3 Year+192.65%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in growth sustainability suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

GOODLUCK • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.96%

Trend QualityStrong

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score75%

Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)

Probability of Advancing96%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.2478σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#654 of 2716

Top 24.08% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-1.3%

1M+5.2%

6M+17.4%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹1,155.94

200 DMA₹1,155.3

150 DMA Slope+1.4037%Rising

Relative Strength+22.26%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.4025

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (15).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
GOODLUCKGOODLUCK	20	63th	+3	7	+5	Growth SustainabilityWatch
BEDMUTHABedmutha Industries Limited	30	85th	-5	28	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
ELECTHERMELECTHERM	35	90th	-5	24	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
ELECTCASTElectrosteel Castings Limited	36	95th	-4	30	+0	Earnings QualityWatch