Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹294.9(▼0.62%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

GOPALGOPAL Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: GOPAL Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Packaged Foods

Risk ClassStable

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

15 / 100

-20 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

36.4th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹294.9▼0.62%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+14.8 pts

Final Composite Risk15 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 15 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Inventory Stress
Relative Growth Weakness

What to Watch Next Quarter

Working capital efficiency
Operating profit margins
Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 5 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 83.9%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 6.0 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

GOPAL: Net Profit collapsed by 89.6% from FY2025 Q1 to FY2026 Q1.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

GOPAL: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

GOPAL: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -74.06x in FY2025 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Inventory growth (10.5%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-72.6%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	8.27	10.56	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+51.0	+51.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Packaged Foods (n=12 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹294.9(-0.62%)

1M Divergence+6.42%

1 Week+0.77%

1 Month+8.68%

6 Months-8.8%

1 Year-14.93%

2 Year-6.26%

3 Year-17.08%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

GOPAL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score15%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.2371σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1499 of 2716

Top 55.19% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W+0.8%

1M+8.7%

6M-8.8%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹304.95

200 DMA₹318.96

150 DMA Slope-2.0504%Declining

Relative Strength-4.48%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.3241

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (15).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
ADFFOODSADF Foods Limited	13	27th	-5	13	+0	GovernanceStable
GOPALGOPAL	15	36th	-20	8	+0	Balance Sheet StressStable
DIAMONDYDDIAMONDYD	26	82th	-5	25	+0	Competitive PositionWatch
TASTYBITETASTYBITE	35	91th	+25	17	+1	Competitive PositionWatch