Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹180.91(▲0.23%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

GREAVESCOTGreaves Cotton Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Greaves Cotton Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Compressors Pumps & Diesel Engines

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹3,522 Cr

Primary DriverGovernance

Flagium AI Risk Score

0 / 100

0 QoQ

Stable

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure has stabilized in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. No major change in risk trend.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹180.91▲0.23%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

No active forensic penalties contributing.

Final Composite Risk0 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 16 → 0 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Working Capital Expansion
Low Interest Coverage

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Operating cash flow
Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

GREAVESCOT: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.42x in FY2025 Q2 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Negative FCF Streak

⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

GREAVESCOT: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

GREAVESCOT: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2025

GREAVESCOT: Net Profit collapsed by 85.4% from FY2024 Q3 to FY2025 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

Inventory growth (50.0%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (4.0%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 16.2%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2024

GREAVESCOT: Revenue fell 2.5% while Debt rose 1355.5% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	4.5	7.92	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+66.0	+58.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Compressors Pumps & Diesel Engines (n=13 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹180.91(+0.23%)

1M Divergence+7.26%

1 Week-0.33%

1 Month+9.52%

6 Months-4.09%

1 Year-7.78%

2 Year+51.67%

3 Year+42.2%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

GREAVESCOT • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.3%

Trend QualityEarly Base

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score40%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing3%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.4261σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#495 of 2716

Top 18.23% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-0.3%

1M+9.5%

6M-4.1%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹173.31

200 DMA₹183.31

150 DMA Slope-2.9225%Declining

Relative Strength+1.40%Neutral

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.7090

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (8).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
GREAVESCOTGreaves Cotton Limited	0	0th	0	7	+0	GovernanceStable
CUMMINSINDCummins India Limited	5	17th	+5	8	+1	Balance Sheet StressStable
KIRLOSBROSKirloskar Brothers Limited	15	58th	+5	7	+3	Competitive PositionStable
INGERRANDIngersoll Rand (India) Limited	35	83th	-8	18	+0	Earnings QualityWatch