GREENPANELGreenpanel Industries Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Plywood Boards/ Laminates
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹2,496 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
35 / 100
+22 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹189.64▲4.55%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+20.0 pts
Earnings Quality
+8.6 pts
Stability Adjustment
+6.0 pts
Final Composite Risk35 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 35 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (10)

CriticalHigh
Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 98.1%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
GREENPANEL: EBITDA margin compressed by 4.3 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 6.3% of revenue YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Aggressive Capex (31.2%) amidst slow revenue growth (-15.4%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 6.1 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
GREENPANEL: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.12x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 8 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
GREENPANEL: Net Profit collapsed by 95.3% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Inventory growth (9.8%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-15.4%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
GREENPANEL: Revenue fell 8.2% while Debt rose 45.5% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)10.177.40⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+31.0+55.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Plywood Boards/ Laminates (n=9 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹189.64(+4.55%)
1M Divergence-19.42%
1 Week-4.92%
1 Month-17.16%
6 Months-21.42%
1 Year-26.81%
2 Year-35.77%
3 Year-40.29%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

GREENPANEL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.7253σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2343 of 2716
Top 86.27% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-4.9%
1M-17.2%
6M-21.4%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹224.1
200 DMA₹239.53
150 DMA Slope-5.1480%Declining
Relative Strength-15.93%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.5473
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (11).
ADLArchidply Decor Limited
9 Risk
Sector %ile25th
Delta-3
Active Flags19
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

RUSHILRUSHIL
31 Risk
Sector %ile88th
Delta-5
Active Flags28
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

GREENPANELGreenpanel Industries Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+22
Active Flags10
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
4.242.4th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Capex Efficiency Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Industrial Margin Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Revenue-Debt Divergence

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,554-29111353
FY20251,4587278390
FY20241,589143135268
FY20231,802257337190