Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹256.59(▲3.73%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

GREENPLYGREENPLY Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: GREENPLY Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Plywood Boards/ Laminates

Risk ClassStable

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverGovernance

Flagium AI Risk Score

11 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

50.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹256.59▲3.73%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment

+11.0 pts

Final Composite Risk11 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 10 → 11 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Relative Growth Weakness
Operating Leverage Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Inventory turnover
Operating profit margins
Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Inventory growth (34.3%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (7.5%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ1 FY2024

GREENPLY: Net Profit collapsed by 96.1% from FY2023 Q1 to FY2024 Q1.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2024

GREENPLY: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Negative FCF Streak

⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2024

GREENPLY: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"Free cash flow pressure is easing as capital intensity or working capital stress recedes."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 19.7%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

GREENPLY: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.18x in FY2024 Q2 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	3.42	7.40	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+55.0	+55.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Plywood Boards/ Laminates (n=9 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹256.59(+3.73%)

1M Divergence-6.29%

1 Week-0.33%

1 Month-4.02%

6 Months-9.95%

1 Year-21.47%

2 Year+0.94%

3 Year+55.98%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

GREENPLY • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.4%

Trend QualityEarly Base

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score25%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing4%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.1437σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#748 of 2716

Top 27.54% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-0.3%

1M-4.0%

6M-9.9%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹247.84

200 DMA₹262.46

150 DMA Slope-2.2820%Declining

Relative Strength-4.46%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)4.9253

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (11).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
ADLArchidply Decor Limited	9	25th	-3	19	+0	Balance Sheet StressStable
GREENPLYGREENPLY	11	50th	-5	8	+0	GovernanceStable
RUSHILRUSHIL	31	88th	-5	28	+0	Competitive PositionWatch
GREENPANELGreenpanel Industries Limited	35	100th	+22	32	+1	Balance Sheet StressWatch