Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹890.85(▲0.63%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

GRINFRAG R Infraprojects Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: G R Infraprojects Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Civil Construction

Risk ClassWatch

Market Cap₹8,989 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

20 / 100

+15 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Weakness is detected in project execution and margins. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

65.4th %ile (Sector)Accel: +2 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹890.85▲0.63%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+20.0 pts

Final Composite Risk20 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 14 → 20 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🚨 Escalate

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Relative Growth Weakness
Operating Leverage Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Debt growth
Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 9.4 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (11.0%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

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Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

GRINFRA: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Negative FCF Streak

⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

GRINFRA: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2025

GRINFRA: Revenue fell 16.4% while Debt rose 30.6% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	3.67	4.13	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+46.0	+56.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Civil Construction (n=53 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹890.85(+0.63%)

1M Divergence-5.33%

1 Week-5.26%

1 Month-4.95%

6 Months-14.66%

1 Year-31.68%

2 Year-43.86%

3 Year-29.17%

Sector Average (1M)+0.38%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

GRINFRA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.5237σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#2102 of 2716

Top 77.39% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-5.3%

1M-5.0%

6M-14.7%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹975.91

200 DMA₹1,046.64

150 DMA Slope-3.8617%Declining

Relative Strength-9.17%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.6551

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (10).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AKASHAkash Infra-Projects Limited	11	52th	+5	21	+1	Earnings QualityStable
GRINFRAG R Infraprojects Limited	20	65th	+15	6	+2	Earnings QualityWatch
AFCONSAfcons Infrastructure Limited	35	90th	+25	12	+2	Earnings QualityWatch
BRNLBharat Road Network Limited	44	100th	+30	16	+3	Earnings QualityModerate Deterioration