Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹664.85(▼2.11%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

GUJALKALIGUJALKALI Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: GUJALKALI Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Commodity Chemicals

Risk ClassStable

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

13 / 100

+5 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

14.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹664.85▼2.11%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+19.7 pts

Competitive Position

+7.7 pts

Stability Adjustment

-14.0 pts

Final Composite Risk13 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 22 → 13 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress
Relative Growth Weakness

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Working capital efficiency
Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2024

GUJALKALI: EBITDA margin compressed by 19.3 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 9.2% of revenue YoY.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 48.9%.

"Working capital cycle is stretching dangerously. This is putting severe strain on daily operations."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Inventory growth (19.3%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (9.5%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2024

GUJALKALI: Net Profit collapsed by 165.0% from FY2023 Q4 to FY2024 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 12 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

GUJALKALI: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.54x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (13.2%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	5.92	11.00	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+53.0	+35.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Commodity Chemicals (n=15 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹664.85(-2.11%)

1M Divergence-19.26%

1 Week-4.51%

1 Month-16.99%

6 Months+27.49%

1 Year+15.37%

2 Year-8.99%

3 Year+10.37%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

GUJALKALI • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.60%

Trend QualityStabilizing

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score60%

Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)

Probability of Advancing60%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.4665σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#467 of 2716

Top 17.19% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-4.5%

1M-17.0%

6M+27.5%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹558.49

200 DMA₹559.98

150 DMA Slope+3.7401%Rising

Relative Strength+32.39%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.3492

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (31).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
ANDHRSUGARThe Andhra Sugars Limited	12	7th	0	21	+0	Earnings QualityStable
GUJALKALIGUJALKALI	13	14th	+5	6	+1	Balance Sheet StressStable
AMNPLSTAmines & Plasticizers Limited	31	50th	-5	13	+0	Competitive PositionWatch
CHEMFABCHEMFAB	32	57th	-3	25	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch